《经济学人》FEB 4TH 2023

Joe Biden’s effort to remake the economy is ambitious, risky—and selfish

But America’s plan to spend $2trn could help save the planet

乔·拜登重塑经济的努力是雄心勃勃、冒险且自私的

但美国的2万亿美元计划可能有助于拯救地球

Get behind?the wheel of an electric vehicle made in Detroit and drive south. The outline of a city that was once a?byword?for industrial decline fades in the rear-view mirror. Head into Ohio, where the battery under your feet was made. The semiconductors that regulate its charging speed were made there too, in a vast new factory that counts the Pentagon among its biggest customers. Recharge with electricity transmitted from one of West Virginia’s new nuclear plants, then start the long journey into the heartlands. After the endless wind farms of Kansas, you drive through Oklahoma’s vast solar fields, then loop back to the gulf coast. The trip ends by the water, the bright sun?glinting off?a?spanking-new?green-hydrogen plant.

坐上一辆底特律制造的电动汽车，向南行驶。这座曾经是工业衰落代名词的城市的轮廓在后视镜中逐渐消失。向俄亥俄州进发，你脚下的电池就是在那里制造的。调节其充电速度的半导体也在那里的一家大型新工厂生产，五角大楼是其最大的客户之一。用西弗吉尼亚州的一个新核电站传输的电力充电，然后开始前往中心地带的漫长旅程。在堪萨斯州无尽的风电场之后，你开车穿过俄克拉何马州巨大的太阳能场，然后绕回墨西哥湾沿岸。旅程在水边结束，明亮的阳光照耀着一座崭新的绿色氢气工厂。

This is America in 2033, if theBiden administrationhas its way. In the past two years Congress has passed three bills, on infrastructure, semiconductor chips and greenery, that will make $2trn available to reshape the economy. The idea is that, with government action, America can reindustrialise itself,?bolster?national security,?revive?left-behind places, cheer up blue-collar workers and dramatically reduce its carbon emissions all at the same time. It is the country’s most ambitious and?dirigiste?industrial policy for many decades. In a series of articles beginning this week,The Economistwill be assessing President Joe Biden’s giant bet on transforming America.

这就是2033年的美国，如果拜登政府如其所愿的话。在过去的两年里，国会通过了三项法案，涉及基础设施、半导体芯片和绿化，将提供2万亿美元用于重塑经济。其理念是，通过政府行动，美国可以实现再工业化，加强国家安全，振兴落后地区，让蓝领工人振作起来，并同时大幅减少碳排放。这是该国几十年来最雄心勃勃和最具统制性的产业政策。在本周开始的一系列文章中，《经济学人》将评估乔-拜登总统对改造美国的巨大赌注。

Mr Biden is taking an?epoch-making?political gamble. He is acting on so many fronts because he had no choice. The only way to build a majority in Congress was to bolt a Democratic desire to act on climate change on to?hawkish?worries about the threat from China and the need to deal with left-behind places in the American heartland. On its own, each of these concerns is valid. But in terms of policy, the necessity to bind them together has led America into a second-best world. The goals will sometimes conflict, the protectionism will?infuriate?allies and the subsidies will create inefficiencies.

拜登正在进行一场划时代的政治赌博。他在这么多方面采取行动，因为他别无选择。在国会赢得多数席位的唯一途径是，将民主党对气候变化采取行动的愿望与鹰派对中国威胁的担忧以及应对美国心脏地带落后地区的需要结合起来。就其本身而言，这些担忧都是有道理的。但就政策而言，将它们捆绑在一起的必要性已将美国带入了一个次优世界。这些目标有时会发生冲突，?；ぶ饕寤峒づ擞眩固岬贾滦实拖?。

To grasp the scale of what is under way, follow the money. The Infrastructure Act makes $1.2trn available over ten years for roads, bridges and cables for a new green grid. TheCHIPSAct, which promotes making semiconductors in America, contains $280bn of spending. The Inflation Reduction Act contains $400bn in subsidies for green tech over ten years; some analysts suggest the true figure will be $800bn. The money is only part of the picture. With it comes a?plethora?of rules, from requirements that batteries be made in North America, to restrictions on tech imports and exports?on grounds of?national security.

要了解正在发生的事情的规模，请关注资金动向?！痘∩枋┓ò浮吩谖蠢词昴谖碌穆躺缤牡缆?、桥梁和电缆提供1.2万亿美元。促进美国半导体制造的《芯片法案》(CHIPS Act)包含2800亿美元的支出?！锻ɑ跖蛘拖骷醴ò浮?Inflation Reduction Act)规定，未来10年将为绿色科技提供4000亿美元补贴;一些分析师认为，真实数字将达到8000亿美元。钱只是问题的一部分。随之而来的是大量的规则，从要求电池在北美生产，到以国家安全为由限制技术进出口。

A giant plan that has so many?disparate?objectives does not simply succeed or fail. Its full consequences may not become clear for many years. However, you do not have to be Ayn Rand to question whether the government?is up to?managing such an ambitious set of projects. For example, because American environmentalism has put preservation first, it takes more than a decade to obtain the necessary permits to connect a renewable project in Wyoming to California’s grid. Likewise, if industries are encouraged to focus on?lobbying?rather than innovating and competing, then costs will rise.

一个庞大的计划，有如此多不同的目标，不会简单地成功或失败。它的全部后果可能在许多年内都不清楚。然而，即使你不是安·兰德(Ayn Rand)，也会质疑政府是否有能力管理这样一组雄心勃勃的项目。例如，由于美国的环保主义将?；し旁谑孜?，怀俄明州的一个可再生能源项目要连接到加利福尼亚州的电网，需要十多年的时间才能获得必要的许可。同样，如果鼓励行业专注于游说，而不是创新和竞争，那么成本就会上升。

And some of the aims are contradictory. Requiring jobs to be in America would be good for some workers, no doubt. But if green products such as?wind turbines?become more expensive, then the green transition will become more expensive, too. And if other Western countries?lose?vital industries?to?America as they chase subsidies or?duck?import restrictions, then the alliances that underpin America’s security will suffer as a result.

其中一些目标是相互矛盾的。毫无疑问，要求工作地点在美国对一些工人来说是有好处的。但是，如果风力涡轮机等绿色产品变得更加昂贵，那么绿色转型也将变得更加昂贵。如果其他西方国家在追逐补贴或逃避进口限制的过程中将重要产业拱手让给美国，那么支撑美国安全的联盟也将因此受损。

Indeed, the entire enterprise may be hard to?pull off?for lack of affordable workers. The plan would never create lots of solid working-class jobs: in today’s manufacturing, robots staff the assembly lines. But America may also?struggle to find?enough of the short-term construction workers needed to build out green infrastructure. Unemployment is at 3.5%, a 50-year low. More immigration could help fill vacancies, but it is restricted. Policies intended to help women rejoin the labour market, such as early education, were?stripped out of?Mr Biden’s plans. Green subsidies therefore risk being diverted into higher wages.

事实上，由于缺乏负担得起的工人，整个企业可能很难运转。该计划永远不会创造大量稳定的工人阶级工作岗位:在今天的制造业中，机器人在装配线上工作。但美国也可能很难找到足够的短期建筑工人来建设绿色基础设施。失业率为3.5%，是50年来的最低水平。更多的移民可以帮助填补职位空缺，但这是有限的。旨在帮助女性重新加入劳动力市场的政策，如早期教育，被排除在拜登的计划之外。因此，绿色补贴可能会转化为更高的工资。

The administration has an answer for its critics. It says that, if America can develop new technologies, build supply chains that are less dependent on China and drive down the cost of clean sources of energy, everyone will be better off. And America has significant advantages: a rich internal market, vast landscapes for solar and wind farms, pipelines for transporting hydrogen and?reservoirs?in which to store carbon. Its universities and venture capital make it a hub for green innovation. The country is already sucking in foreign investment to work alongside the subsidies. And the policy enjoys a degree of political consensus. Although Republicans are less keen on the green bits, they are even more?hawkish?on China and even more protectionist.

政府已经对批评做出了回应。它说，如果美国能够开发新技术，建立对中国依赖性较低的供应链，降低清洁能源的成本，每个人都将受益。美国拥有显著的优势:丰富的国内市场，广阔的太阳能和风力发电场，输送氢气的管道和储存碳的水库。大学和风险资本使它成为绿色创新的中心。除了补贴外，该国已经在吸收外国投资。该政策在一定程度上获得了政治共识。尽管共和党人对环保不那么热衷，但他们对中国的态度更加强硬，?；ぶ饕迩阆蚋忧苛?。

To help the plan realise its good intentions, three things need to happen. First, the effort going into boosting domestic industry needs to be matched by a sustained programme of trade diplomacy. One way to build a bloc in favour of a cheaper green transition would be to give foreign-made goods access to American subsidies (so long as they are not Chinese, Iranian or Russian). Second, subsidies should?tilt towards?technologies that are not yet commercially?viable, such as new types of nuclear reactor and carbon capture and storage. Public money spent?reshoring?the manufacturing of solar panels that could be produced more cheaply elsewhere will be wasted. Third, to build new subsidised infrastructure, America needs reform of its permit laws, perhaps with afederal lawthatsupersedes?state and local concerns.

为了帮助该计划实现其良好意图，需要做三件事。首先，振兴国内产业的努力需要与持续的贸易外交计划相匹配。建立一个支持廉价绿色转型的集团的方法之一是允许外国制造的商品获得美国的补贴(只要它们不是中国、伊朗或俄罗斯的)。其次，补贴应该侧重于还不具备商业可行性的技术，比如新型核反应堆和碳捕获与存储技术?；ㄔ谔裟艿绯匕逯圃煲祷亓鞯墓沧式鸾焕朔眩裟艿绯匕逶谄渌胤缴杀靖?。第三，为了建设新的有补贴的基础设施，美国需要改革其许可证法律，也许是用联邦法律取代州和地方法律。

Half-full

For better or worse, Mr Biden’s blueprint for remaking the economy will change America profoundly. It may succeed in helping deal with an?authoritarian?Ch*n*, keeping voters at home from embracing a more radical and destructive politics, and?defying?the gloomier predictions about the effects of climate change. But?be under no illusions, it is?audacious?to believe that the way to cope with three problems which are too hard to tackle separately is to deal with them all at once.?■

无论好坏，拜登重塑经济的蓝图将深刻改变美国。它可能会成功地帮助应对威权主义的秦国，阻止国内选民接受更激进和更具破坏性的政治，并反制有关气候变化影响的更悲观预测。但不要抱有幻想，认为要解决这三个难以分别解决的问题，就必须同时解决它们，这种想法是无知无畏。